The International Labor Organization (ILO), finds that the war in Ukraine threatens the post-pandemic recovery in global employment, which has been slower than expected and is now compromised by uncertainty, rising inflation and disruptions in global supply chains.
Cited by Lusa, the International Labor Organization (ILO), a UN technical agency, analyzed the impact in Ukraine, neighboring countries receiving refugees, Central Asia and the rest of the world of the first ten weeks of a war that seems to be dragging on.
"Growing uncertainty and the impact on investor and consumer confidence will reduce aggregate demand in the recovery period from the covid-19 crisis," says a report released Wednesday by the organization in Geneva.
The strong economic impact of this war on the rest of the world has to do with the role of both Ukraine and Russia as producers of agricultural products, particularly grain, as well as oil and gas in the case of Russia.
In high-income countries "labor market conditions may worsen," but following the pattern of all crises "the situation will be harder for low- and middle-income countries," which had not even managed to recover in the labor market from the consequences of the global pandemic crisis.
However, the ultimate impact of the war on the latter group of countries will depend on whether they are exporters or importers of goods, the ILO said.
If they are importers of food and fuel, there will be a negative impact on their growth, employment and poverty, while if they are on the export side, they can benefit from higher commodity prices.
According to the UN, some 5.3 million Ukrainian refugees are in neighboring countries, and the ILO estimates that 1.2 million of these were working in their country before the Russian aggression.
In addition, two-thirds of the refugees have higher education and almost half had highly skilled jobs.
If the war is prolonged, refugees will have to stay abroad and look for employment options, which will create more pressure on labor markets and social protection systems, explained ILO Employment Policy Department Director Sangheon Lee.
Another way to look at the problem is to add the number of refugees who were working before the conflict to the pre-crisis unemployment level in neighboring countries, which would increase, for example, the unemployment rate in Poland from 3% to 5.3%.
In the case of Moldova it would increase from 2.5% to 6.9% and in Slovakia, Romania, Hungary and the Czech Republic the increase would be more than one percentage point.
Experts predicted that the war will have a particularly negative impact on Central Asian countries, since citizens of Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan accounted for a considerable portion of the 11.6 million immigrants to Russia.
Previous crises, such as the 2008 financial crisis and the most recent one, due to covid-19, have forced migrant workers in Russia to return to these countries.
If this happens again, these countries will be deprived of the important source of income from remittances.
The ILO estimates that the war caused the loss of 30% of employment in Ukraine. If hostilities ceased immediately, recovery could still be rapid and the jobs lost would amount to 8.9%.
On the other hand, if the war drags on - as is feared - the jobs lost will amount to 43.5%, in addition to the effect on the Ukrainian social system through increased spending and reduced income.