BMI warned on Tuesday that the coups d'état in Niger and Gabon have led to an overall increase in political risks in sub-Saharan Africa, causing the Short-Term Political Risk Index to fall (low score means high risk)..

In a note to which Lusa has had access, the analysts at the consultancy owned by the same owners of the financial rating agency Fitch Ratings write that "political risks in sub-Saharan Africa have increased slightly in global terms. Military takeovers in Niger and, more recently, Gabon have increased regional risk levels".

"The average score of the Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI), weighted according to GDP, fell from 50.4 in July to 50.3 out of 100 points - the lowest score corresponds to the highest risk - at the beginning of September, which implies slightly higher political risk," the note said.

However, the political instability in the two aforementioned countries was offset by the easing of risks in some individual markets, as well as a reduction in inflationary pressures and an improvement in the political environment, namely in Mozambique, Lesotho and Sierra Leone.

In the case of Mozambique, the consultancy expects "the Front for the Liberation of Mozambique (FRELIMO) to win the October 2024 elections, despite the current insurrections underway", suggesting a "good political decision-making process in the coming quarters". "FRELIMO's strong position in the legislature will reduce the risk of policy changes," the note stresses.

On the other hand, says the Fitch consultant, "the main opposition formation, the Mozambican National Resistance (RENAMO), will face headwinds due to its limited track record in terms of governance and its insurgency activity in the 2013-2021 period".

The increase in risks in Gabon, associated with the coup d'état on August 30 that ousted President Ali Bongo Ondimba - declared the winner of the presidential elections on August 26 and in power since 2009, after the death of his father, who had been president since 1967 - is justified in the note by "considerable short-term political uncertainty" resulting from the military takeover.

"The country suffers from high unemployment (21.5% in 2022) and inequality, which has led to growing public dissatisfaction with Bongo's leadership," writes BMI, recalling that the leader of the coup, General Brice Oligui Nguema, who has since been sworn in as interim president, "has announced plans to hold elections within two years".

In Niger, the consultancy estimates, the political risks "will continue to be high" following the July 26 coup d'état. "There have been regular demonstrations related to the coup, especially in the vicinity of Western embassies," it points out.

Although the Nigerien authorities have called on the French ambassador and the French forces to leave the country, the French government insists that it does not recognize the authority of the military junta, and both the ambassador and the French troops remain in place. As a precautionary measure, the United States has transferred some of its military personnel from Niamey to another base in Agadez, Niger.

"Despite the increase in tensions, we hope that a diplomatic solution to the political crisis in Niger will be found in the coming months," adds the consultant, who stresses the fragility of a military intervention by the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), especially for Nigeria.

"A military intervention by ECOWAS would have negative consequences for all parties" and Nigeria "faces significant internal risks, thus dissuading the country from entering an external conflict," writes BMI.

The Fitch consultancy is finally predicting an increase in the risks of social unrest over the coming weeks in Liberia, in the run-up to the general elections on October 10, and as inflation continues to rise.

"We estimate that the opposition parties will seek to take advantage of the weak macroeconomic situation, which could lead to an increase in social unrest," writes BMI, which predicts the re-election of President George Weah in a second round.