Global oil demand will reach a new record of 101.7 million barrels per day in 2023, driven by the recovery in China and commercial aviation, the International Energy Agency (IEA) revealed on Wednesday.

In its monthly report on the oil market, the IEA, quoted by Lusa, sees demand increasing by 1.9 million barrels per day this year, with aviation fuel being the main driver (840,000 barrels per day), while China is expected to contribute a similar amount following the lifting of restrictions to curb covid-19.

China and Russia will be the two big players in the oil market this year, according to the agency, which brings together most of the OECD countries.

The Asian country because it will be responsible for almost half of the increase in demand, although the extent of its economic recovery and reopening after covid-19 remains "uncertain", and Russia because the long-term effect of international sanctions against Russian oil remains to be seen in a context of growing global demand.

Prices, which were "extraordinarily volatile" in 2022 and closed the year with a drop to one-year lows, began to recover slightly at the beginning of January.

Although greater demand could push up prices in 2023, uncertainty over the international economic slowdown and the continuation of the war in Ukraine, increased global refining capacity and rising stocks could moderate these increases.

On the supply side, the United States will be the largest source of the increase in world oil production, along with Brazil, Canada and Guyana, all non-members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

The authors of the report expect OPEC and its allies (OPEC+) to reduce production this year by 870,000 barrels per day, while non-OPEC countries are expected to increase production by 1.9 million barrels per day.

The decline of OPEC+ will be influenced by the impact of international sanctions against Russia, an ally of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), especially the European Union's embargo on Russian oil transported by ship and the price limit of 60 dollars per barrel imposed on it by the G7.

The IEA recalls that Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak indicated that the country would have to reduce production by around 500,000-700,000 barrels per day, but estimates that Russia will have to cut an even larger volume due to the European embargo.

Specifically, the document estimates that by the end of the first quarter Russia will be forced to cut production by 1.6 million barrels a day compared to the levels before the invasion of Ukraine last February.

This would leave Russia's average crude oil production at 9.7 million barrels per day in 2023, a cut of 1.3 million barrels per day in one year, a drop of 11.8%.

The agency points out that in December Russia earned 3 billion dollars less from oil sales and had to make "record discounts" to sell its production.

In terms of volume, Russian oil exports fell by 200,000 barrels a day in December, to 7.8 million barrels a day, due to international sanctions.

In contrast, Russia increased its diesel exports last month to a record 1.2 million barrels per day, the highest in several years, of which 720,000 barrels per day (60%) were destined for the European Union.

The authors of the report thus predict that the global market, with abundant supply in the first months of 2023, could suffer tensions due to the impact of sanctions on Russian exports, and point out that the risk is greatest in refined products, especially diesel.

They point out that energy saving campaigns, efficiency measures and the release of strategic oil reserves have enabled countries to withstand the energy crisis generated by the invasion of Ukraine, but warn that these measures will be "more crucial than ever" this year.