The International Energy Agency (IEA) warned on Wednesday that it does not rule out an increase in the price of crude oil in 2023 due to the tightening of the global market, despite the current phase of decline caused by the weakening of the world economy.

In its monthly report on the oil market, the IEA highlights how the price has fallen by around 15 dollars per barrel in the last month, due to the decline in demand caused by the weakening economy and the abundance of supply.

This occurred despite the fall in production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) and the easing of China's anti-covid measures, which could result in an increase in demand from the Asian country, which is the world's second largest oil consumer.

In summary, the report forecasts a contraction in demand of 110,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of this year, to 100.8 million barrels.

Although the lower prices are a "relief" for consumers affected by rising inflation, the full impact of the embargoes on oil and oil products "remains to be seen", the document indicates.

The agency warns: "As we move through the winter months and into a tighter market in 2023, another price increase cannot be ruled out."

Cited by Lusa, the IEA estimates that 2022 will close with a global demand of 99.9 million barrels per day, up 2.3 million barrels, and that in 2023 the increase will be smaller, of 1.7 million barrels, to 101.6 million barrels.

The publication of this monthly report comes in the midst of a significant fall in prices since November, which has totaled around 15 dollars per barrel in six weeks, despite the increase in consumption generated by winter in the northern hemisphere.

The decline is more remarkable when compared to the peaks of 130 dollars per barrel seen at the beginning of March, just a few days after the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The fall in prices occurred despite the fact that OPEC+ cut production by two million barrels a day in October, a reduction that was extended into next year in December.

Russian oil suffered much bigger falls, from as low as 30 dollars a barrel to 43 dollars in early December in northwest Europe, well below the 60 dollar ceiling agreed by the European Union, the G7 and Australia, notes the IEA.

The global fall in prices may have been due to the increase in world stocks of oil derivatives, which is expected by the first quarter of 2023, after 10 consecutive quarters of decline.

Refinery production increased by 2.2 million barrels per day in November to reach the highest level since January 2020, before the pandemic, which led to a reduction in gasoline and diesel prices.

In November, revenues from Russian oil exports fell by 700 million dollars to 15.8 billion dollars, due to lower prices and higher discounts on products of Russian origin, according to the report.

This drop in revenues occurred despite the fact that Russian exports of oil and oil products increased by 270,000 barrels a day to a total of 8.1 million, the highest monthly figure since April, mainly due to an increase in diesel shipments.