Analysts point to Twitter's advantage in court battle with Musk

The dispute between Elon Musk and Twitter's management will continue in the courts after the businessman called off the deal to buy the social network, with analysts giving the company the upper hand in the "arm wrestling".

According to experts heard by specialized publications, cited by EFE and Lusa, Twitter's board of directors will be at an advantage in the legal battle to make Musk complete the acquisition under the terms that had been proposed. The dispute will be decided in a Delaware state court specializing in commercial litigation, with the company wanting to force the implementation of the agreement between the two parties or seek financial compensation.

The company's shares have depreciated in recent months, with the stock currently below $37, or short of the $54.20 per share offer made by the entrepreneur in April and representing a deal in the range of $44 billion.

Elon Musk argues that Twitter provided "false and misleading" information during the negotiations and did not provide him with data that he considers essential to close the transaction. At issue will be, above all, the number of fake accounts on the social network (associated with "bots"), which Twitter claims represents less than 5% of the total, but about which the world's richest man has already expressed many doubts.

For many analysts, the "bots" issue was a pretext for the entrepreneur to withdraw from a business on which he may pay far above the current real value of the company. Added to this scenario is the impact on the shares of Tesla, Musk's largest company, and on his own personal fortune.

However, the entrepreneur did not include too many conditions in the purchase transaction, so it seems difficult that a court will accept his reasons for giving up. According to experts, Elon Musk's trump card is to be able to prove that Twitter provided information about his business that does not correspond to reality, which could prove extremely difficult.

There are not many precedents in the US for similar cases, especially in deals of this size, but in most of these cases the buyer has been forced to move forward with the process. However, the completion of the deal also looks complicated and the disagreements could further weaken the value of the social network.

Therefore, analysts consider that the most likely scenario is an agreement between the parties, allowing Elon Musk to walk away from the purchase through compensation or a reduction in the price to be paid for the shares to close the acquisition deal.

Musk warned about a month ago that he reserved the "right not to consummate the transaction," according to a letter to Twitter's chief legal officer and posted on the US financial markets regulator's website, due to the lack of information about fake accounts on the social network.

According to the document released in May, Elon Musk intended to pay more than half of the $44 billion he is offering to buy Twitter with equity and was negotiating the social network founder's participation in the transaction.

According to a document filed with the US market regulator (SEC), the founder of Tesla and SpaceX initially said he would contribute $21 billion in funds of his own, from his own pocket or supported by third parties.

Subsequently, shareholders of the tech company filed a complaint against Elon Musk, who they accuse of market manipulation to achieve savings in his operation to acquire this social media company.

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