Global demand for oil will rise and exceed the demand recorded during the pre-pandemic period due to the war in Ukraine. This is the main conclusion of the new report of the International Energy Agency (IEA), released on Wednesday, which reveals that after gains of 1.8 million barrels per day this year, global demand for oil is expected to jump 2.2 million barrels per day to 101.6 million barrels per day in 2023.

This increase will be difficult to respond to, however, as the IEA estimates a shortfall of 500,000 barrels per day.

After the report was released, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), traded in New York, loses 0.95% to $118.11 per barrel. North Sea Brent - the benchmark for European imports - also falls 0.62% to $120.42 per barrel.

According to the entity, the increase in demand will be boosted by China at a time when the country's economy is reopening, after having once again imposed anti-covid restrictions. In turn, the other developed economies are expected to slow down in oil consumption in view of the discouraging economic outlook and rising inflation.

"While rising prices and a weaker economic outlook temper consumption increases, a resurgent China will accumulate gains next year," reads the released document, reporting that unlike 2022, when the OECD led the expansion, "non-OECD economies will account for nearly 80% of growth next year."

This increase will also be influenced by the sanctions applied to Russia and which compromise the country's production levels, this at a time when the European Union has agreed to move forward with an embargo on 90% oil imports until the end of the year.

The document also reveals that "modest" increases in production by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+), will allow for "partial compensation," but non-OPEC countries will dominate gains through the end of the year and into 2023. These producers, led by the US, will respond with 1.9 million barrels per day of supply in 2022 and 1.8 million barrels per day next year, according to IEA forecasts.

"However, to prevent the balance from going into deficit, OPEC+ would have to further exploit the dwindling capacity, reducing it to historic lows of just 1.5 million barrels per day," the paper writes.