Harder times for African families seem to be on the way. A general rise in prices and little purchasing power is still to be expected. That, at least, is the conclusion of analysts at Oxford Economics Africa.

According to a note from these analysts, inflation will have a serious impact on household consumption, which will spill over to domestic demand in all sectors and ultimately to unemployment.

The Oxford consultancy believes that even the upward revision of the IMF's growth forecast for Africa will not mean an improvement for Africans, explained by the rise in energy prices.

"The upward revision to the World Economic Forecast regarding production in Africa is a result of the upward revision to energy price forecasts and does not mean that the outlook for real economic activity is better," the analysts write in a note sent to clients.

In the note, the analysts note that rising prices, incidentally, "are already having disruptive effects on the social fabric in North Africa, which supports our prediction that political risk in that region is trending downward."

At issue is the heavy dependence of several African countries on grain and fertilizer imports from Ukraine and Russia, whose exports have been virtually halted due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The IMF revised the growth forecast for sub-Saharan Africa up slightly this week as part of new estimates presented at the Annual Meetings, which are being held from Washington in conjunction with the World Bank.

"Although the World Economic Outlook forecasts for Africa are less pessimistic than for other regions, for example compared to the downward revision of 1.1 points for the eurozone, the outlook for prices motivates serious concerns," the analysts point out.

The IMF forecasts inflation to rise to 13.4% this year and 10.8% in 2024 in the Middle East and North Africa region, driven by the war in Ukraine and the region's exposure to food prices, mainly wheat.

"Although the regional average is pushed by the very high numbers in Sudan and Iran, the forecasts over 7% in Algeria, Tunisia and Egypt are notable and worrying," says the African branch of this British consultancy.

For sub-Saharan Africa, the IMF forecasts that prices will rise 12.2% this year and 9.6% next year, with the largest increases to be seen in Ethiopia, where inflation will reach 35%, and Angola, where prices are expected to rise 20% this year compared to 2021.