The central region of the country, may suffer more bad weather than the rest of the country in the upcoming rainy season, accentuating a pattern of previous years, according to the latest seasonal forecast.
The authorities are even planning an investment in a new meteorological center for that area with support from the African Development Bank (AfDB), which should become a reality by 2024 and increase the accuracy of forecasts and warnings.
The new rainy season is beginning: it takes place annually from October to March.
This time, for the central region of the country it is predicted that rain may fall "above normal" in "practically all periods" and this without yet knowing the cyclonic forecast - whose season runs from November to April, says Acácio Tembe.
In a room with several computers, the head of the forecasting department of the National Institute of Meteorology (INAM), in Maputo, looks at the maps he receives from satellite services to anticipate what will happen in the coming days.
Other colleagues trace the seasonal weather pattern.
On average, nine to 12 low pressure systems form in the southwest Indian Ocean basin each season, of which five to seven reach tropical cyclone category.
Of these, two to three cyclones may hit the Mozambique channel and then reach the country.
"Last season [2020/21] we had cyclones Chalane, Eloise and Guambe" causing flooding, damage and deaths, he recalls.
According to official data, the combination of different natural disasters caused 96 deaths in the previous rainy season in the country.
The 2018/2019 rainy season was one of the most severe in recent memory in the territory: 714 people died, including 648 victims of two of the largest cyclones (Idai and Kenneth) ever to hit the Lusophone nation, especially the provinces of Sofala and Manica in the center.
"We are working to install a regional weather forecast center in the city of Beira and that will allow us to make more accurate forecasts for the central provinces," without relying only on national models, Acácio Tembe said.
The project is supported by ADB and is being prepared for implementation in the next two years.
"It will allow us to create better conditions" for forecasting and warning "for that region that has been ravaged in recent times" by some of the most serious natural disasters, he stresses.
Besides infrastructure and equipment, the investment includes training for meteorologists that should start soon, he adds.
On the grounds at INAM, in downtown Maputo, three satellite dishes occupy the space outside the entrance to the forecast office, connected to different satellites that provide images, with much of the data also arriving directly through closed networks on the Internet to which the institute has access.
Further ahead, there is an automatic station and a manual station that take different measurements: wind, temperature, humidity, rainfall, among others.
December and January are usually critical months, with soils starting to become saturated and precipitation levels still increasing, which requires INAM to do "more monitoring and alert work" regarding meteorological conditions.
Acácio Tembe prepares on his computer the forecasts that indicate the approach of strong winds.
"At the beginning and end of the rainy season there are windstorms, phenomena of short duration" that can be accompanied by "severe thunderstorms and hailstorms" due to sudden temperature swings - in this case, suddenly torrid days with thermometers hitting 40 degrees in the south of the country.
Another INAM ambition is to install weather stations in all districts - there is even a government program called "One district, one station" - increasing the network that already produces forecasts to 40, those where there is more economic activity and tourism.
"With local data it is possible to give information with greater precision and anticipate any meteorological phenomena" more accurately, Acácio Tembe concludes, before moving to a different room to begin an intervention for a local television station.
The weather forecast continues to be one of the mandatory daily information for the media, with redoubled attention during the rainy season that now starts in the country.
Lusa Agency